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Dagogo Allen Wokoma

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Dagogo Allen Wokoma is a registered researcher in their academic field.

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Research · 2026 · Ktrend - International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics (IJMS)

Volatility Sensitivity of Deep In-The-Money European Call Options: A Black-Scholes and Non-Central F Analysis

This study investigates the sensitivity of European call option prices to volatility under the Black-Scholes framework for deep in-the-money contracts. Using the stock quantity parameter values to compute, the results show a monotonic and convex increase in call value with volatility, with total increases of $2.33 and $1.84 for S? = 60 and S? = 70, respectively. A Fisher non-central F analysis confirms that volatility explains a statistically significant proportion of price variation, with a strong effect size after controlling for the level of the initial stock price. The findings underscore the critical role of vega for deep in-the-money options and the importance of accurate volatility estimation in high-rate environments.

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CTMCs; Stocks; Equity Prices; Stochastic Analysis; NGX; Regime-Switching · 2026 · African Journal of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science

Regime-Switching Dynamics of Nigerian Group Exchange Cement Equities: A Continuous-Time Markov Chain Analysis

We model daily price dynamics of BUA Cement and BZU Cement on the Nigerian Group Exchange (NGX) as three-state Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMCs) representing Low, Mid, and High regimes. Using nine months of data, estimated generator matrices show that BZU exhibits 2.4 times higher total transition intensity than BUA, with expected holding times of 1.5 months versus 3.0 months in bear states. Stationary distributions reveal that BUA spends 30% of time in the absorbing bull state, while BZU is uniformly distributed across regimes, indicating higher mean reversion. The CTMC results highlight BUA's relative stability compared with BZU's higher regime volatility. One-month transition forecasts show that BUA remains in the High regime with probability 100%, whereas BZU has only 51.3% probability of remaining High and a 28.3% chance of dropping directly to Low. These findings indicate that BUA is trend-persistent, while BZU is regime-unstable and more exposed to short-term downside switching risk.